Ensaio publicado no NEXO Jornal: Covid-19 e teoria econômica: diferença entre risco e incerteza

O ensaio intitulado “Covid-19 e teoria econômica: diferença entre risco e incerteza” foi publicado hoje no site do NEXO Jornal.

O ensaio pode ser lido em:
https://www.nexojornal.com.br/ensaio/debate/2020/Covid-19-e-teoria-econ%C3%B4mica-diferen%C3%A7a-entre-risco-e-incerteza

Ensaio publicado no portal UnB: “Por um diretor-geral da Polícia Federal com mandato fixo e intercalado com o mandato presidencial”

O ensaio intitulado “Por um diretor-geral da Polícia Federal com mandato fixo e intercalado com o mandato presidencial” foi publicado hoje no Portal da Universidade de Brasília.

Leia o texto aqui:
https://noticias.unb.br//artigos-main/4143-por-um-diretor-geral-da-policia-federal-com-mandato-fixo-e-intercalado-com-o-mandato-presidencial

Seminário virtual na Universidad del CEMA, Argentina, Sexta, 22/5/2020, 13 horas.

Caros amigos e colegas,

Nesta sexta-feira 22 de maio de 2020 as 13 horas (horário de Brasilia), estarei apresentando um seminário virtual na Universidad del CEMA, Buenos Aires. O seminário é aberto a todos os interessados, mas há a necessidade de inscrição prévia. Caso tenha dificuldade, de acesso, favor me contactar com antecedência (maubug@gmail.com).

Local: Universidad del CEMA, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Date: 22 de maio de 2020 (Sexta-feira)

Time: 13h

Série de Seminários: Seminarios de Análisis Económico

Título: Job security, attitude towards risk and preference for social insurance: A note on ‘Earnings inequality and welfare spending’ by Moene and Wallerstein

Apresentador: Mauricio Bugarin, University of Brasilia and Vanderbilt University

Coautor: Yasushi Hazama, Institute of Developing Economies

Para ter acesso virtual ao seminário é preciso se registrar previamente para obter a senha de acesso. Por favor, se registre aqui:
https://ucema.edu.ar/cgi-bin/inscripcion.pl?file=cys2020/02_Seminarios_de_Analisis_Economico/05.22E.txt

Para informaçõs regais sobre o seminário, favor clique no link abaixo:
https://ucema.edu.ar/cgi-bin/seminarios.pl/cys2020/02_Seminarios_de_Analisis_Economico

Atenciosamente,
Maurício Bugarin

Virtual seminar at Universidad del CEMA, Argentina, Friday, May 22, 2020 , 1pm.

Dear friends and colleagues,
On Friday May 22, 2020 at 1pm (local time Argentina) I will present a “webinar” at the Universidad del CEMA. The presentation is open to all participants but you need to register.
Please find the details below:

Venue: Universidad del CEMA, Argentina

Date: May 22, 2020 (Friday)

Time: 1pm Buenos Aires and Brasilia time, 12pm Washington, DC time

Seminar series: Seminarios de Análisis Económico

Title: Job security, attitude towards risk and preference for social insurance: A note on ‘Earnings inequality and welfare spending’ by Moene and Wallerstein

Presenter: Mauricio Bugarin, University of Brasilia and Vanderbilt University

Coauthor: Yasushi Hazama, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan

In order to attend the seminar, you will need to register to get a password. Please register here:
https://ucema.edu.ar/cgi-bin/inscripcion.pl?file=cys2020/02_Seminarios_de_Analisis_Economico/05.22E.txt

General information about the seminar program can be found here:
https://ucema.edu.ar/cgi-bin/seminarios.pl/cys2020/02_Seminarios_de_Analisis_Economico

Best regards,
Maurício Bugarin

Papers published in the Journal of Applied Economics and Economics of Governance on the effects of electronic voting on local fiscal management in Brazil

The paper “Electronic voting and public spending: the impact of de facto enfranchisement on federal budget amendments in Brazil” has been published in the Journal of Applied Economics.

The paper, coauthored with Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College) and Diloá Athias (Development Pathways), presents evidence that the increase in valid-vote-to-turnout in a municipality that resulted from the implementation of electronic vote in Brazil yielded an increase in the allocation of funds from the federal budget to the correponding municipality.

The article has open-access. Please read the entire paper here:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15140326.2020.1748358

Please find below the abstract:

This article examines whether an increase in political participation biased toward low-income voters – and concentrated in legislative elections – impacts federal representatives’ allocation of resources from the federal budget to Brazilian municipalities. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits the assignment of electronic voting to municipalities based on population size to identify the causal effect of enfranchisement on the allocation of federal public spending. We find that an increase of 1 percentage point in the valid-vote-to-turnout ratio for federal representatives in a municipality increases the allocation of funds from the federal budget by 3.3%, and that experienced politicians are more responsive to the enfranchisement of low-income voters.

Citation:
Schneider, Rodrigo; Athias, Diloá;  Bugarin, Mauricio (2020). Electronic voting and public spending: the impact of de facto enfranchisement on federal budget amendments in Brazil, Journal of Applied Economics 23(1): 299-315.  DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2020.1748358

In 2019 another paper on the effect of electronic voting in Brazil was published in Economics of Governance. The article, also coauthored with Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College) and Diloá Athias (Development Pathways), find evidence that the increase in valid-vote-to-turnout ratio due to electronic voting for state representatives increased municipalities’ expenditures in health, education and public employment, among other fiscal effects.

The article’s title is: “Does enfranchisement affect fiscal policy? Theory and empirical evidence on Brazil” and it can be found here:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10101-019-00230-6

Please read below the abstract:

This paper studies the effect of political participation on public spending at the local level in Brazil. In particular, we look at the phased-in implementation of electronic voting in the late 1990s—which enfranchised poorer voters by decreasing the number of invalid votes—to identify the causal effect of political participation on public spending. We build a theoretical political economy model which allows voters to cast, not purposefully, an invalid vote, and show that when poorer voters’ likelihood of casting a valid vote increases, public social spending increases as well. We test this prediction empirically using a difference-in-differences model where municipalities using electronic voting constitute our treatment group. We find that an increase of 1 percentage point in the valid vote to turnout ratio for state representatives increases health spending by 1.8%; education by 1.4%; public employment by 1.25%; intergovernmental transfers by 1%; and local taxes by 2.6%.

Citation:
Schneider, Rodrigo; Athias, Diloá; Bugarin, Mauricio (2019). Does enfranchisement affect fiscal policy? Theory and empirical evidence on Brazil. Economics of Governance 20(4): 389–412.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-019-00230-6

Seminar at Universidad del CEMA, Buenos Aires, Argentina on Friday, May 22, 2020

I will present a zoom seminar at the Universidad del CEMA, Buenos Aires, Argentina on May 22, 2020 at 1pm, Brasilia (and Buenos Aires time), 11 am CDT.

Please find here the list of UCEMA’s “Seminarios de Análisis Económico”:

https://ucema.edu.ar/cgi-bin/seminarios.pl/cys2020/02_Seminarios_de_Analisis_Economico

Please find below a copy of UCEMA’s announcement. The virtual seminar is open access, but you need to register in order to be able to access it. To register, click here.

Análisis Económico: Job security, attitude towards risk and preference for social insurance: A note on ‘Earnings inequality and welfare spending’ by Moene and Wallerstein

In a seminal 2003 article, Karl Moene and Michael Wallerstein show that richer citizens support higher spending in social policies targeting the unemployed, whereas they prefer lower spending in policies targeting the employed. This paper argues that this result is driven by two strong assumptions: citizens’ coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA) is greater than one, and all citizens face the same probability of losing their jobs. By modelling the stylized fact that job security is positively correlated with income, we show that much higher levels of risk aversion may be needed for the rich to support higher spending in unemployment policy. Furthermore, a significant change in the distribution of job security – due to a sudden economic crisis, for example – may alter the way inequality affects preferences for social insurance. A case study for Brazil before and after the 2008 World Financial Crisis illustrates of such social preference change.

Expositor

Mauricio Bugarin: University of Brasilia and Vanderbilt University

El seminario será dictado en inglés sin traducción simultánea y está basado un trabajo en co autoría con Yasushi Hazama ( Institute of Developing Economies, IDE/JETRO, Japón)

Descargar paper.

Inscripción

 

Paper accepted for presentation in the 12th World Congress of the Econometric Society: ESWC 2020

The paper Elections, Heterogeneity of Central Bankers and Inflationary Pressure: the case for staggered terms for the president and the central banker”, co-authored with Fábia A. de Carvalho was accepted for presentation in the 12th World Congress of the Econometric Society: ESWC 2020.

The World Congress of the Econometric Society is the most important meeting of the Econometric Society and is held once every five years. This years’ meeting was expected to take place at Bocconi University, Milan, Italy but, due to the Covid 19 pandemic, the Congress is going virtual.

Please read the version of the paper accepted for presentation at the ESWC 2020 here.